Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.030663 0.034934 0.039612 0.045121 0.051438 0.058461 0.066872
2025-01-12 0.023399 0.029030 0.035766 0.044437 0.055334 0.068614 0.086089
2025-01-19 0.018969 0.024903 0.032428 0.042713 0.056462 0.074297 0.099328
2025-01-26 0.017089 0.023509 0.032057 0.044333 0.061621 0.085253 0.120282
2025-02-02 0.015647 0.022412 0.031806 0.045893 0.066649 0.096358 0.142562
2025-02-09 0.014475 0.021494 0.031611 0.047384 0.071588 0.107701 0.166369
2025-02-16 0.013040 0.019993 0.030356 0.047083 0.073706 0.114943 0.184632
2025-02-23 0.011969 0.018903 0.029564 0.047338 0.076608 0.123562 0.205914
2025-03-02 0.010860 0.017624 0.028326 0.046704 0.077939 0.129700 0.223665
2025-03-09 0.010211 0.017012 0.028070 0.047614 0.081862 0.140433 0.250401
2025-03-16 0.009380 0.016007 0.027059 0.047119 0.083279 0.146953 0.270303
2025-03-23 0.008986 0.015705 0.027193 0.048602 0.088294 0.160260 0.304109
2025-03-30 0.008108 0.014490 0.025661 0.047002 0.087631 0.163356 0.319277
2025-04-06 0.007448 0.013606 0.024638 0.046234 0.088443 0.169295 0.340765
2025-04-13 0.006719 0.012527 0.023155 0.044441 0.087070 0.170835 0.353456
2025-04-20 0.006520 0.012420 0.023467 0.046130 0.092716 0.186785 0.398028
2025-04-27 0.006325 0.012301 0.023738 0.047756 0.098389 0.203369 0.446004
2025-05-04 0.006133 0.012169 0.023967 0.049311 0.104060 0.220533 0.497400
2025-05-11 0.005754 0.011627 0.023330 0.048997 0.105699 0.229213 0.530505
2025-05-18 0.005466 0.011245 0.022984 0.049262 0.108621 0.240993 0.572324
2025-05-25 0.005113 0.010697 0.022246 0.048601 0.109394 0.247998 0.603486
2025-06-01 0.004933 0.010503 0.022236 0.049550 0.113939 0.264159 0.659345
2025-06-08 0.004640 0.010039 0.021607 0.049034 0.114998 0.272200 0.695592